They Didn't "Ace" The Test, But....

Contrary to popular belief over the last 10 days, the sky is not falling for the Butler basketball program.

Yes, Butler played an ugly road game at Evansville on Saturday night. But remember this - it was on the road and they won. Here's why they won:

-Offensive Execution: Don't laugh, let me explain. What Butler did was execute its offense well enough to get 44 free throws. Not all of that is one-on-one stuff with Matt Howard and Gordon Hayward. Butler worked its offense and got good shots. Evansville had to foul because Butler was working them for good shots.

- Balance: Butler has had four guys go for double-digit scoring in each game. Teams double down on Howard, that's a given. Hayward and Mack are really good players, that's a given. But Howard is still hovering around 10 ppg without getting on track while other guys like Veasley, VanZant and Hahn are stepping up.

- Willie Veasley: That guy is good (see more on this below).

MORE ON EVANSVILLE

I thought Garrett Butcher gave really good minutes. He has shaken off that bout of swine flu, which isn't always easy. He's a classic Butler freshman-sophomore role player and then he'll become a junior-senior leader/scorer. Players like him are the reason Butler is good. Brandon Crone clone.

I'm not ready to say Evansville is a bad team. Before you say, "Mr. Blogger, Evansville was picked last in the MVC poll." ... save it. Those polls are a joke. Other than who gets picked first, they're never right, and nobody really cares. They were picked last because they lost their top 4 scorers. Ely and Holsinger were good players at UE. On paper in September, yeah, they looked crappy.

But they had size, some shooters (Ryan) and a quick guard (Taylor) that could penetrate. That's not a bad team. They also had a good crowd behind them while playing their most marquee home game of the year. Last' IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER because Butler will be seeing that "marquee" treatment every night for the next few years.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Butler won the game and was barely - if at all - threatened. Butler led virtually the entire game. Most of it by 8-10 points! The shot 28 percent on the road and won, leading by 10 into the final minute. That's the sign of a good team that will move to great once they start clicking.

SLICK WILLIE

Right now, at this very moment, after three games, Willie Veasley has been Butler's best player. But the statistics aside for a moment. He is such a valuable player. He didn't have a big line against Evansville, but follow me on this.

He can guard (almost) any position, and well. He was banging down low with the UE bigs on Saturday, something the team needed badly. He can guard the perimeter. He penetrates with quickness and absorbs contact with strength. He can hit an open 3 from time to time. Rebounding? Willie's got you covered. He keeps so many possessions alive on the offensive boards with his athleticism. He's a heady player (how about that out-of-bounds play late when he got the ball back to Hayward).

There's no question he's worth A TON to Butler's potential success this season.

SAY WHAT?

OK. Not a great debut for that local station up in Indy who carried the game. I'll send you HERE to read the majority of complaints if you don't know what I'm talking about. Here's my favorite part:

Just a bit more than 4 minutes remaining in the game, Butler leads by something like 7-9 or something like that. Maybe more. Ron Nored gets a rebound and dribbles the other way for a fast break. He's one-on-one with some guy from Evansville. There are four "some guys" from Evansville trailing the play.

COLOR GUY: Bad decision by Ronald Nor-ADD. He should pull that back out and kill the clock!! He had four defender trailing him!

Um, yeah. He had four defenders TRAILING him. That means behind him, and that means he only has to get by one guy to get to the basket. That would be a perfect reason to drive to the hoop. And they're only up by eight, with more than four minutes to play. Again, a perfect time to drive to the basket.

MINNESOTA PREDICTION

Minnesota is really good. Today, when you look at how the first 10 days of the season are going, I'd have to say Minnesota has LOOKED better than Butler. Whether that plays out in Anaheim, we'll see on ESPN2 Thursday night.

Minnesota has really good guards and several capable big men in the 6'8 to 6'11 range. They are well-coached and always play stingy defense.

Luckily for Butler, I'm not sold on Minnesota's shooting or ability to play outside of The Barn.

It'll be a tremendously low-scoring game, with 30 points enough to lead at half. Minnesota will control most of the game before Butler methodically cuts the lead to two on multiple occasions without anybody noticing.

Minnesota will get a late stop to preserve a tight game.

Minnesota 64, Butler 59

GOOD FOR A LAUGH

PREVIEW: Northwestern Game

BUTLER AT NORTHWESTERN
Wednesday, 11/18/09
Evanston, Ill. -- Welsh-Ryan Arena

Big Ten Network

Butler's been fortunate.

No matter what the sport, no matter the level, teams can't sustain success without a little luck. The Patriots were lucky in the Tuck Rule Game. The Colts were lucky they were playing against Rex Grossman. The Chicago Bulls were lucky Portland picked Sam Bowie.

But I'm not talking about that kind of lucky. Rather, the Bulldogs, more or less, have been injury lucky.

During Butler's sustained success, the team really hasn't had to deal with any major injuries. Last year, the same team started all 32 games. The previous year, Mike Green bulled his way to the hoop 20 times a game and was hammered countless times. Yet, he never got hurt and played every minute he was supposed to.

That's what Northwestern is facing right now. Devastating injuries. Kevin Coble, who torched Michigan State last year, is one of the team's best players...probably their best player. He is now out for the season. That's a big blow to their NCAA Tournament hopes.

However, if I'm Butler, I'm leery of an emotional team playing at home, proving to everyone - including themselves - that their season isn't over. A team that is disciplined, well-coached and let Butler slip away last season.

Make no doubt about it, Northwestern will be up for this game.

ON BUTLER'S SIDE:

It's amazing how big of a job teams make from the first game to the second game. Expect Butler to come out a little better than the team did vs. Davidson. Northwestern should have trouble scoring early, as they've had to change a lot of what they do this week. That'll give Butler time to get into the game.

Fans need to realize that just because you're ranked 10th doesn't mean you're going to roll on teams starting from the opening tip. That's not Butler's style. If Northwestern struggles early, expect both teams to start slow and for scoring to be down the opening 10 minutes. Magically, Butler will have about 31-35 points at half. They can play badly and still get 65+ points. That's the sign of a good team.

PREDICTION:

Butler 66, Northwestern 60. Butler trails in an ugly game early, but settles and looks great for about 30 minutes. Matt Howard with 18 points. Good minutes from Avery Jukes. Northwestern is thin in the front court, but long on the perimeter. Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack might not have a lot of room to operate.

When playing Northwestern, teams must stay disciplined. They run a slow-down, Princeton-style offense with good shooters, back-cuts, tons of screens and lanky kids. It can lull opponents to sleep. Luckily for Butler, they play a slow-down offense with tons of screens, sets and good shooters. Butler is used to playing Northwestern's style. That will be the difference.

And that is a lucky/fortunate thing.

That Sounds About Right

There's a reason why the people in Vegas are the people in Vegas. There's a reason why the coaches are coaches. There's a reason why bloggers are bloggers.

The line for Butler's game was what, 12? The final was 73-62. And never mind how it got there (we'll get to that in a second). The line was 12. The final margin was 11.

No matter what the team, coaches get paid (sometimes nicely) to know what's best for their team. This is very true for Butler. It's their full-time job to know what will work to beat Davidson. Opinions about who to start, what lineup to use and who should shoot matter less than zero. The coaches know what's best. Always.

With that said, Saturday's final against Davidson made perfect sense. The Bulldogs took Davidson's best shot. DC was a solid, hungry team on the road, trying to prove it could be successful without YouKnowWho. And that's what Butler is going to see every night now. Every team's best shot. Not just Detroit or UW-Parkside's, I mean UW-Milwaukee's best shot. Playing Butler was arguably Davidson's top game this year (maybe Gonzaga), and that says a lot. Good teams like Davidson (and you can bet Georgetown, Northwestern and Minnesota will be too) are now "up" for Butler.

Some thoughts on the game:

• Butler didn't play poorly in the opening minutes. Every team in the nation looks like that in the first 5-10 minutes of the season. It didn't help that Davidson made some shots. And remember, they were facing a pretty good team.

• Davidson will win 20 games this season. People who thought Butler would rout them really don't understand what chemically goes into a basketball program. Teams don't just lose one player and forget how to win. Davidson has been good for a long time; they're well-coached and will remain a prestigious mid-major program.

• Teams that make shots against Butler tend to fare well. That's easier said than done. Butler is normally strong nationally in FG% defense. Early on, Davidson made shots. That's why it went up 10. Once shots stopped going in, things evened out and returned to normal.

• This year appears to begin similarly to last year regarding how teams guard Matt Howard. Last year, Howard was the team's only known commodity, meaning opponents doubled down on him immediately. Davidson did the same thing. Count on Northwestern, Ball State and Evansville doing the same thing. How will Butler (and Matt) make them pay?

• The VanZant/Nored combo at point guard is genius. Two strong defenders, two kids who like to push the ball in transition. VanZant has been hitting the 3 a little more, and if that continues, opposing point guards won't be able to help off. That'll give Butler pretty much any shot they want.

• Davidson looked a lot like teams of Butler past, didn't they? Well-coached, tough, shot well at times, made free throws. The present day Bulldogs just had more athleticism. Exhibit A: Butler forced multiple shot clock violations. That means Butler had better athletes.

KEY POINT IN THE GAME
Well, it's more of a sequence. A 9-0 run over 74 seconds. Late first half. Butler down 10 with 2:18 remaining. Here's how it went down:

• VanZant hits a 3 at 2:18 to make it 33-26...Davidson bricks a quick 3.
• Mack crosses over and scores on the drive...Davidson takes a bad, contested shot. Brick.
• Mack then drives baseline and and gets fouled going for a dunk. He makes the first FT, then misses the second. Garrett Butcher makes a hustle play for the offensive rebound.
• Willie Veasley hits a 3 at 1:04.

9-0 run. Davidson controlled play for 18 minutes only to see Butler sprint past them like it was this.

DID YOU KNOW THIS?

When a defensive player makes a strip and his momentum carries him out of bounds, it's not enough to re-establish position in bounds. That same defender can't be the first one to touch the ball. Not many people know this. See Gordon Hayward's near steal at 16:49 in the first half.

SAY WHAT?

I was able to pick up the TV broadcast on DirecTV. Jim Barbar, a well-known play-by-play man, made some interesting comments:

• "Shelvin Mack is 15 pounds heavier." Um, no. Not accurate.
• "Butler is ranked in the top 10, primarily because of the play of their guys in the World University Games." Again, not quite right. Mack and Hayward played in the U-19 games in New Zealand. The World University Games are for older players and was held in Serbia.
• "McKillop has been dangerous so far for Butler." Maybe not entirely inaccurate. I think I know where he was going with this, but it was strangely worded.
• "Matt Howard inside...and he got blocked!" The call was a foul, not a block. (Howard missed the FTs)
• "A new rule in college basketball this year, if you bring over a secondary defender, that defender has to be set." Actually, to take a charge, being set has always been part of it. It has to do with WHERE the defender is. The rule can be found here.

IRONHEAD HAYWARD

You can always tell a great basketball player by how quiet he scores and produces. I would wager many Butler fans went home thinking Gordon had a so-so game. Nothing YouTube-like. Didn't make any treys. He didn't score for nearly 13 minutes to begin the game.

But he had 17 points and 8 rebounds. Blocked shots, got steals. He's going to be a truly great player. The ones who score 17 without anyone noticing usually are.

GIVE IT TO HIM!

I thought I saw this more often the first time I saw the tape, but maybe not. I still think it's important, though, and Butler didn't do a great job on Saturday.

There were multiple times (see first half, 17:05 and 10:36) when Matt Howard had pinned his guy deep in the paint and NEEDED to get the ball. Both times he didn't; and both times Butler didn't score. Even if teams bring the quick double team - and they will - Howard works too hard down low not to see the ball. Give it to him!

I CLIMB UP ON MY FAITHFUL STEED...

Zelton Steed needs to consult an officials' manual. In the first half, 2:36 remaining, Nored hammered Davidson's Bryant Barr. Clearly a foul. Steed, standing three steps away from the play, signaled a blocked shot with his hands. He then proceeded to administer a foul.

About five minutes into the second half, Avery Jukes went up for a shot and was mugged. Steed blew his whistle and charged in, thumbs high in the air. Jump ball. He then turned to the table and signaled a foul on Davidson. Mechanics, anyone?

NEXT POST

In the next day or so, we'll talk Northwestern. A tough team, would be top 50 or so, but they've been hit by the injury bug. Still, will be a tough game. We'll preview it here as well as give a prediction.

GOOD FOR A LAUGH

Horizon League Schedule Rankings

(Quick note before I get started: Apologies for the length between posts. After all, it's November and I do have a team of my own!)

A couple of weeks ago, I was driving down the street when I spotted a squirrel running in the road, not far ahead of my car. This little guy was determined. He busted his tail (funny!) to get to the nut in the middle of the road, and unlike so many of his flattened brothers, he put his head down and went for it. He ran hard and got to the other side. And once he got there, he had the prize: an acorn that had fallen from a tree that was definitely worth the hard work.

That's kinda how I see this year's Butler schedule. Make no mistake about it; it's tough. The car is barreling down, just days away. Butler has a split-second to make a decision: put their head down and go hard to the sidewalk with an acorn, or get flattened.

For an established mid-major power, the Bulldogs' schedule is fantastic. To get the games they got (at least 2 marquee home dates, Jimmy V and 76 Classic) while facing the challenges they face in scheduling is amazing.

Here's hoping that when league play starts (the real season, after all), Butler is standing on the sidewalk eating an acorn.

SCHEDULE RANKING SYSTEM

I have devised a (somewhat) objective formula to quantitatively evaluate non-conference schedules. There are a few gray spots, but I've included comments to hopefully clarify my thinking. Anyway, here's how I break down and categorize each game:

+1 for mid-major home game.

+1 for mid-major road game

+1 for non-high-major neutral site vs. DI team

+1.5 pts for high major neutral site

+ 2 pts for high major road game

+ 2.5 points for high major home game

0 points for low major road game

-1 points for low major home game

-2 points non D1 game

Here's the reasoning:

Essentially, most mid-majors should play other mid-majors most of the time. It's fair, it's how you sort out the order. It's how Butler got where it is today. Beating Ball State, Indiana State and Evansville gave Butler street cred in Indiana. And it went from there. That's why mid-major games are +1.

A neutral high-major game is +1.5 because it'll be a wee bit tougher than a mid-major game, but on a neutral floor the mid-major is more likely to get a fair shake.

+2 for a high-major road game...The toughest games out there, but necessary. Sometimes hard to get for a mid-major. And it's that reason exactly why I give +2.5 to a team who gets a high major in its own gym. Darn near impossible to do. It should be rewarded.

2009-10 HORIZON LEAGUE NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE EVALUATIONS

1. Butler (+16.5)

Home v Davidson (1)

At Northwestern (2)

At Evansville (1)

Vs. Minnesota (76 Classic) (1.5)

2 games at 76 classic (3) (I gave 3 here because it's a safe average between what might happen)

At Ball State (1)

Vs. Gtown (Jimmy V) (1.5)

Home v Ohio State (2.5)

Home v Xavier (1.5) (not exactly a high-major, but a great game to have at home...gray area)

At UAB (1.5) (another gray area game; revenue driving football, Mike Davis)

2. WRIGHT STATE (+11)

At Washington (AIA) (2)

Vs. Portland State (AIA) (1)

Vs. Belmont (AIA) (1)

Home v Central Michigan (1)

At Northeastern (1)

At Toledo (1)

At Miami (OH) (1)

At Mississippi State (2)

Home v Maryland-Eastern Shore (0)*

Home v Arkansas-Little Rock (0)*

Home v Sam Houston State (1)
* In all honesty, I usually am torn on what to do with low-major teams like these. A part of me thinks they should be negative, because they are RPI killers. But they are necessary sometimes for some coaches and I think they should get the benefit of the doubt for not going D-II or lower.

t-3. CLEVELAND STATE (+10.5)

At St. Bonnie (1)

Home v Wilmington (-2) (brutal game)

Home v Florida A-M (0)

Home v Sam Houston St. (1)

Vs. Kentucky (2) (major props here)

Vs. Virginia (2)

Home v Wichita St. (1)

Home v Wilberforce (-2) (seriously???)

Home v Robert Morris (1) (borderline, give benefit of the doubt because RMU went to NCAA and CSU will return the game)

Home v West Virginia (2.5)

At Ohio State (2)

At Kansas State (2)

t3. UIC (+10.5)

Home v UI-Springfield (-2) (why not play a 2nd exhibition instead?? Oh, right.)

At Central Michigan (1)

Home v Oregon State (2.5) (Michelle Obama in the Pavillion! ... hopefully for them)

Home v Northern Illinois (1)

Home v Illinois State (1)

Home v Toledo (1)

At Wisconsin (2)

At DePaul (2) (would've been a great game 9 years ago or so)

At Southern Illinois (1)

At Akron (1)

5. GREEN BAY (+9)

Vs. UAB (1.5) (another gray area game; not quite high major, not really mid)

Vs. Samford (1)

At Kent State (1)

Home v Northern Michigan (-2)

Home v Long Beach State (1) (it should be mandatory; when a team from snow goes to Cali, no return game)

At North Dakota State (1)

At North Dakota (1)

Home v Wisconsin (2.5) (great game to have)

At Oakland (1)

Home v Buffalo (1)

At Houston Baptist (0) (at least it's only once this season)

t6. DETROIT (+8)

At California (2) (they'll be as good as any in the Pac 10)

Home v Western Mich. (1)

At Albany (1)

Vs. Alcorn State (0)

Vs. Robert Morris (1)

At DePaul (2)

Home v Tennessee State (0)

At Michigan (2)

Home v Bowling Green (1)

Home v Central Michigan (1)

Home v Shawnee State (-2) (I sure hope they can beat the group of studs on this page)

Home v Chicago State (-1) (terrible game to play anywhere)

t6. MILWAUKEE (+8)

Home v Concordia-St.Paul (the hyphen bowl) (-2)

Vs. Western Kentucky (Preseason NIT) (1.5)

At LSU/Vs. Indiana State (Preseason NIT) (1.5)

Home v Hillsdale (-2)

2 more games (Preseason NIT) (2)

At Bowling Green (1)

At Marquette (2)

At North Dakota State (1)

Home v Miami (OH) (1)

At Wisconsin (2)

At SIUE (0)

t8. LOYOLA (+4)

At Kansas State (2)

Home v Canisius (1)

At Holy Cross (1)

Home v Western Michigan (1)

Home v St. Ambrose (-2) (

Home v San Francisco (1) (would be awesome game if this guy were playing)

At Bradley (1)

At SIUE (0) (once again, not sure what to do with low-majors. however, I feel this should be considered differently because it's local and a DI game in the state Loyola can win.)

Home v Albany (1)

Home v St. Francis (IL) (-2)

t8. VALPARAISO (+4)

At Ball State (1)

At North Carolina (2) (great game; Homer has a track record of getting the big fish every year)

Home v IU-South Bend (-2)

At Michigan State (2) (part of the tourney out in Jersey; will be a bludgeoning)

At Georgia Southern (0)

Home v Troy (1) (strange mix: low major, but they have good football, thus should be considered a borderline mid-major)

Home v Arkansas-Ft. Smith (-2)

At Purdue (2)

Home v Toledo (1)

Home v Concordia (Wis) (-2) (this should be in the NCAA Division I manual: probation for anyone who plays any school named Concordia)

At IPFW (0)

At Akron (1)

10. Youngstown State (+1.5)

At Xavier (1.5) (gray!)

Home v Hiram (-2)

Home v Kent State (1)

At St. Peter’s (0)

Home v Geneva (-2)

At Pittsburgh (2)

At St. Francis (0)

Home v High Point (0)

Home v Robert Morris (1)

Home v NC Central (0)

So that's that. A way to pump up/defend your school's schedule. Feel free to apply this formula in some other situations and see what you find.

Questions, comments??? Email me here. Or have a look at my Twitter.

NEXT POST
I'll organize the Horizon League into divisions. Not East-West. Not North-South. Real divisions. That make sense.... i.e., we'll take a look at 2009-10 Horizon League Predictions.