Rival?

A lot of time is spent trying to decide who Butler's "true rival" is. I'm not sure it'll ever be possible to land on a consistent answer here:

Is it Wright State? Raiders fans seem (from what I can tell online) to be delusional and have a serious case of Butler envy. The two schools are very close geographically.

Is it Cleveland State? Butler fans don't like them some Gary Waters. The two teams have played a few close games in the two years CSU has been good.

Is it UW-Oshkosh (I mean Milwaukee)? It may have been at one point, but recent mediocre UWM teams have killed the mood.

Essentially, Butler's rival turns out to be whoever is the second best team in the conference at that moment. It used to be UIC/Detroit, then Milwaukee when Bruce Pearl was there, then Cleveland State for a few months. Wright State is likely the answer if your arm was twisted and you had to pick one. And WSU has a good coach, good players (some from Indiana even), good facilities and virtually no academic requirements. That means they SHOULD be competitive. And they have been.

So why not name Wright State Butler's "rival"? Well, because the team will only be good as long as Brad Brownell is there. He's got that program consistently getting 20-22 wins a year. But when he leaves, they'll drop (see: Jeter, Rob and Milwaukee). And when that happens, whoever has a decent team will become Butler's new rival.

THOUGHTS ON FRIDAY'S GAME

• Strange that this game is on Friday and NOT on ESPNU. Instead, a brutal Detroit-Valparaiso game is on. That is the one important reason why the Horizon League is put down nationally. As a result, Butler wins games by double digits and still drops in the polls because of popular opinion. You want to showcase yourself? Put the best games/teams on.

• Wright State has a good team, but looked awful at Loyola and lost. They appear to be worse defensively than they have been in the past and Duggins isn't the same player he was two years ago.

• Troy Tabler has been Wright State's best player (maybe Todd Brown). I'm not sure he'd see many minutes on Butler's team. Maybe. But Butler has six players better than him.

• Butler needs to make shots. As soon as Matt Howard touches the ball, the double-team is coming. That's a given in every game they play that doesn't involve an athletic 7-footer. If Butler makes shots, they'll win by 12+.

My guess? Butler 73, Wright State 66. Just shy of 9K in attendance for the game (maybe Butler should get royalties). Gordon Hayward leads with 19. In Horizon League play, he might be a double-double machine.

GOOD FOR A LAUGH

In First Place Already

I felt bad for not posting for awhile. But honestly, the fans' ghastly response to a mid-major team going 8-4 against the 4th toughest non-conference schedule in the country was enough for me to take it easy during the holidays.

Yeah, they lost some games.

The tough schedule will pay off. It's like playing basketball with a men's ball for years and then picking up the 28.5 women's ball. There is such a difference you can feel it. That's how this Butler team will go. They've been playing tough teams EVERY NIGHT. Now they're picking up the women's ball. It's much lighter and easier to control. This may be the first time ever the league schedule is easier. It's usually the other way around in college basketball.

Today is January 1st. Already Butler is the lone undefeated team in the Horizon League. Nobody looks like they can play with the Dawgs already, and they should be at the top of the standings from beginning to end. Even a very good Wright State team looked awful at times. I'm not sure Wright State can stop Butler. Green Bay is the second best team. They have veteran guards and it's a bear having to go up there and play them in the Resch Center.

There is so much more to say than that. Here are a bunch of thoughts:

• Butler people want to be like Gonzaga. The Zags have become the household name mid-major that everyone this side of Xavier aspires to be. Ever hear Butler called "Gonzaga of the Midwest?" That certainly is a compliment and would be a great accomplishment. Well, doesn't this season for Butler look pretty much like what Gonzaga does EVERY YEAR? Gonzaga fans would love to be 8-4 with an SOS of 8.

• Matt Howard hasn't played great, but he's faced a murderer's row of post players, if not an immediate double-team every time he touches the ball. His presence opens everything on the perimeter and Butler plays great when he's in the game. He'll be OK.

• Butler has had the misfortune of having the teams they lose to go and immediately lose. The loss to Minnesota in California wouldn't have been viewed as badly if Minnesota hadn't lost to Portland the next night. Also, the loss to UAB will end up being a good loss. UAB will likely be in the top 50 RPI. But they lost to Virginia their very next game.

• What if the Dawgs had gotten one more stop against Clemson? Of if Willie Veasley hadn't had the questionable call go against him. They would've gone 2-1 in California, not dropped very far in the rankings, gotten the 0-10,000 against Top 25 teams monkey off their backs and had a fourth quality win.

• The Bulldogs will potentially be 3-4 against the RPI Top 50, with a home game against another good team in the Bracketbuster. That will likely be good enough for a 6 or 7 seed. We'll talk more in a later post about why teams are seeded and what is important in seeding.

THE GREEN BAY GAME
Without Fletcher, of course Butler should win by 15-20. Butler got back to defending like it normally does. If some early breaks hadn't gone Green Bay's way, the Phoenix may not have gotten 40 points. With Fletcher, I think Butler wins by 7-12.

With or without Fletcher, when they play in Green Bay it will be different. I would still expect Butler to win.

THOUGHTS ON MILWAUKEE

UW-Milwaukee cannot beat Butler at home. They just can't. UW-Whitewater has a better chance. The Panthers just lost at Valparaiso, a tough place to play no matter what, but Valpo is a bad team. UWM struggled to beat Cardinal Stritch and Hillsdale. They only beat UIC, which is maybe somewhere in the 220-260 in the country, by 5 at home.

My guess? Butler 68, UW-Oshkosh 55. Attendance 7,095. Willie Veasley has 16 points to lead the Dawgs.

GOOD FOR A LAUGH