In First Place Already

I felt bad for not posting for awhile. But honestly, the fans' ghastly response to a mid-major team going 8-4 against the 4th toughest non-conference schedule in the country was enough for me to take it easy during the holidays.

Yeah, they lost some games.

The tough schedule will pay off. It's like playing basketball with a men's ball for years and then picking up the 28.5 women's ball. There is such a difference you can feel it. That's how this Butler team will go. They've been playing tough teams EVERY NIGHT. Now they're picking up the women's ball. It's much lighter and easier to control. This may be the first time ever the league schedule is easier. It's usually the other way around in college basketball.

Today is January 1st. Already Butler is the lone undefeated team in the Horizon League. Nobody looks like they can play with the Dawgs already, and they should be at the top of the standings from beginning to end. Even a very good Wright State team looked awful at times. I'm not sure Wright State can stop Butler. Green Bay is the second best team. They have veteran guards and it's a bear having to go up there and play them in the Resch Center.

There is so much more to say than that. Here are a bunch of thoughts:

• Butler people want to be like Gonzaga. The Zags have become the household name mid-major that everyone this side of Xavier aspires to be. Ever hear Butler called "Gonzaga of the Midwest?" That certainly is a compliment and would be a great accomplishment. Well, doesn't this season for Butler look pretty much like what Gonzaga does EVERY YEAR? Gonzaga fans would love to be 8-4 with an SOS of 8.

• Matt Howard hasn't played great, but he's faced a murderer's row of post players, if not an immediate double-team every time he touches the ball. His presence opens everything on the perimeter and Butler plays great when he's in the game. He'll be OK.

• Butler has had the misfortune of having the teams they lose to go and immediately lose. The loss to Minnesota in California wouldn't have been viewed as badly if Minnesota hadn't lost to Portland the next night. Also, the loss to UAB will end up being a good loss. UAB will likely be in the top 50 RPI. But they lost to Virginia their very next game.

• What if the Dawgs had gotten one more stop against Clemson? Of if Willie Veasley hadn't had the questionable call go against him. They would've gone 2-1 in California, not dropped very far in the rankings, gotten the 0-10,000 against Top 25 teams monkey off their backs and had a fourth quality win.

• The Bulldogs will potentially be 3-4 against the RPI Top 50, with a home game against another good team in the Bracketbuster. That will likely be good enough for a 6 or 7 seed. We'll talk more in a later post about why teams are seeded and what is important in seeding.

THE GREEN BAY GAME
Without Fletcher, of course Butler should win by 15-20. Butler got back to defending like it normally does. If some early breaks hadn't gone Green Bay's way, the Phoenix may not have gotten 40 points. With Fletcher, I think Butler wins by 7-12.

With or without Fletcher, when they play in Green Bay it will be different. I would still expect Butler to win.

THOUGHTS ON MILWAUKEE

UW-Milwaukee cannot beat Butler at home. They just can't. UW-Whitewater has a better chance. The Panthers just lost at Valparaiso, a tough place to play no matter what, but Valpo is a bad team. UWM struggled to beat Cardinal Stritch and Hillsdale. They only beat UIC, which is maybe somewhere in the 220-260 in the country, by 5 at home.

My guess? Butler 68, UW-Oshkosh 55. Attendance 7,095. Willie Veasley has 16 points to lead the Dawgs.

GOOD FOR A LAUGH