Horizon League Schedule Rankings

(Quick note before I get started: Apologies for the length between posts. After all, it's November and I do have a team of my own!)

A couple of weeks ago, I was driving down the street when I spotted a squirrel running in the road, not far ahead of my car. This little guy was determined. He busted his tail (funny!) to get to the nut in the middle of the road, and unlike so many of his flattened brothers, he put his head down and went for it. He ran hard and got to the other side. And once he got there, he had the prize: an acorn that had fallen from a tree that was definitely worth the hard work.

That's kinda how I see this year's Butler schedule. Make no mistake about it; it's tough. The car is barreling down, just days away. Butler has a split-second to make a decision: put their head down and go hard to the sidewalk with an acorn, or get flattened.

For an established mid-major power, the Bulldogs' schedule is fantastic. To get the games they got (at least 2 marquee home dates, Jimmy V and 76 Classic) while facing the challenges they face in scheduling is amazing.

Here's hoping that when league play starts (the real season, after all), Butler is standing on the sidewalk eating an acorn.

SCHEDULE RANKING SYSTEM

I have devised a (somewhat) objective formula to quantitatively evaluate non-conference schedules. There are a few gray spots, but I've included comments to hopefully clarify my thinking. Anyway, here's how I break down and categorize each game:

+1 for mid-major home game.

+1 for mid-major road game

+1 for non-high-major neutral site vs. DI team

+1.5 pts for high major neutral site

+ 2 pts for high major road game

+ 2.5 points for high major home game

0 points for low major road game

-1 points for low major home game

-2 points non D1 game

Here's the reasoning:

Essentially, most mid-majors should play other mid-majors most of the time. It's fair, it's how you sort out the order. It's how Butler got where it is today. Beating Ball State, Indiana State and Evansville gave Butler street cred in Indiana. And it went from there. That's why mid-major games are +1.

A neutral high-major game is +1.5 because it'll be a wee bit tougher than a mid-major game, but on a neutral floor the mid-major is more likely to get a fair shake.

+2 for a high-major road game...The toughest games out there, but necessary. Sometimes hard to get for a mid-major. And it's that reason exactly why I give +2.5 to a team who gets a high major in its own gym. Darn near impossible to do. It should be rewarded.

2009-10 HORIZON LEAGUE NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE EVALUATIONS

1. Butler (+16.5)

Home v Davidson (1)

At Northwestern (2)

At Evansville (1)

Vs. Minnesota (76 Classic) (1.5)

2 games at 76 classic (3) (I gave 3 here because it's a safe average between what might happen)

At Ball State (1)

Vs. Gtown (Jimmy V) (1.5)

Home v Ohio State (2.5)

Home v Xavier (1.5) (not exactly a high-major, but a great game to have at home...gray area)

At UAB (1.5) (another gray area game; revenue driving football, Mike Davis)

2. WRIGHT STATE (+11)

At Washington (AIA) (2)

Vs. Portland State (AIA) (1)

Vs. Belmont (AIA) (1)

Home v Central Michigan (1)

At Northeastern (1)

At Toledo (1)

At Miami (OH) (1)

At Mississippi State (2)

Home v Maryland-Eastern Shore (0)*

Home v Arkansas-Little Rock (0)*

Home v Sam Houston State (1)
* In all honesty, I usually am torn on what to do with low-major teams like these. A part of me thinks they should be negative, because they are RPI killers. But they are necessary sometimes for some coaches and I think they should get the benefit of the doubt for not going D-II or lower.

t-3. CLEVELAND STATE (+10.5)

At St. Bonnie (1)

Home v Wilmington (-2) (brutal game)

Home v Florida A-M (0)

Home v Sam Houston St. (1)

Vs. Kentucky (2) (major props here)

Vs. Virginia (2)

Home v Wichita St. (1)

Home v Wilberforce (-2) (seriously???)

Home v Robert Morris (1) (borderline, give benefit of the doubt because RMU went to NCAA and CSU will return the game)

Home v West Virginia (2.5)

At Ohio State (2)

At Kansas State (2)

t3. UIC (+10.5)

Home v UI-Springfield (-2) (why not play a 2nd exhibition instead?? Oh, right.)

At Central Michigan (1)

Home v Oregon State (2.5) (Michelle Obama in the Pavillion! ... hopefully for them)

Home v Northern Illinois (1)

Home v Illinois State (1)

Home v Toledo (1)

At Wisconsin (2)

At DePaul (2) (would've been a great game 9 years ago or so)

At Southern Illinois (1)

At Akron (1)

5. GREEN BAY (+9)

Vs. UAB (1.5) (another gray area game; not quite high major, not really mid)

Vs. Samford (1)

At Kent State (1)

Home v Northern Michigan (-2)

Home v Long Beach State (1) (it should be mandatory; when a team from snow goes to Cali, no return game)

At North Dakota State (1)

At North Dakota (1)

Home v Wisconsin (2.5) (great game to have)

At Oakland (1)

Home v Buffalo (1)

At Houston Baptist (0) (at least it's only once this season)

t6. DETROIT (+8)

At California (2) (they'll be as good as any in the Pac 10)

Home v Western Mich. (1)

At Albany (1)

Vs. Alcorn State (0)

Vs. Robert Morris (1)

At DePaul (2)

Home v Tennessee State (0)

At Michigan (2)

Home v Bowling Green (1)

Home v Central Michigan (1)

Home v Shawnee State (-2) (I sure hope they can beat the group of studs on this page)

Home v Chicago State (-1) (terrible game to play anywhere)

t6. MILWAUKEE (+8)

Home v Concordia-St.Paul (the hyphen bowl) (-2)

Vs. Western Kentucky (Preseason NIT) (1.5)

At LSU/Vs. Indiana State (Preseason NIT) (1.5)

Home v Hillsdale (-2)

2 more games (Preseason NIT) (2)

At Bowling Green (1)

At Marquette (2)

At North Dakota State (1)

Home v Miami (OH) (1)

At Wisconsin (2)

At SIUE (0)

t8. LOYOLA (+4)

At Kansas State (2)

Home v Canisius (1)

At Holy Cross (1)

Home v Western Michigan (1)

Home v St. Ambrose (-2) (

Home v San Francisco (1) (would be awesome game if this guy were playing)

At Bradley (1)

At SIUE (0) (once again, not sure what to do with low-majors. however, I feel this should be considered differently because it's local and a DI game in the state Loyola can win.)

Home v Albany (1)

Home v St. Francis (IL) (-2)

t8. VALPARAISO (+4)

At Ball State (1)

At North Carolina (2) (great game; Homer has a track record of getting the big fish every year)

Home v IU-South Bend (-2)

At Michigan State (2) (part of the tourney out in Jersey; will be a bludgeoning)

At Georgia Southern (0)

Home v Troy (1) (strange mix: low major, but they have good football, thus should be considered a borderline mid-major)

Home v Arkansas-Ft. Smith (-2)

At Purdue (2)

Home v Toledo (1)

Home v Concordia (Wis) (-2) (this should be in the NCAA Division I manual: probation for anyone who plays any school named Concordia)

At IPFW (0)

At Akron (1)

10. Youngstown State (+1.5)

At Xavier (1.5) (gray!)

Home v Hiram (-2)

Home v Kent State (1)

At St. Peter’s (0)

Home v Geneva (-2)

At Pittsburgh (2)

At St. Francis (0)

Home v High Point (0)

Home v Robert Morris (1)

Home v NC Central (0)

So that's that. A way to pump up/defend your school's schedule. Feel free to apply this formula in some other situations and see what you find.

Questions, comments??? Email me here. Or have a look at my Twitter.

NEXT POST
I'll organize the Horizon League into divisions. Not East-West. Not North-South. Real divisions. That make sense.... i.e., we'll take a look at 2009-10 Horizon League Predictions.